Stonegate Capital Partners has updated its coverage on Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX), pointing to third-quarter 2026 results that strengthened the operating case for the renewable fuels producer as higher renewable natural gas (RNG) credit values increased earnings from existing assets. The update, released November 6, 2026, highlights a quarter in which Aemetis reported revenue of $88.2 million, up 49% year over year, adjusted EBITDA of $24.8 million, and its first quarterly net income of $5.2 million. The full announcement is available click here.
The net income figure was amplified by an $11.0 million first-half 45Z catch-up, but Stonegate notes that recurring economics also improved. Excluding the catch-up, RNG 45Z revenue was $9.1 million for the quarter after the federal model update lifted the credit to approximately $62 per MMBtu. RNG volume rose 39% year over year, two digesters entered service in October, and six more Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) pathways are nearing approval. That growth comes from existing output without the full long-term buildout, suggesting the assets already in place can generate stronger earnings as credit values hold.
The importance for investors lies in how quickly those gains convert into cash. Stonegate identifies two near-term margin levers at the company’s Keyes facility. The mechanical vapor recompression (MVR) system has all key equipment on site, with construction targeted for completion around March 2027. Management maintains an approximately $32 million annual cash-flow opportunity: natural-gas savings begin at switchover, and most of the benefit is now expected in the second half of 2027, extending the funding period before Keyes delivers its next earnings step. The third corn-oil unit, scheduled for December, completes a program expected to roughly double corn-oil output versus the first quarter of 2026 into a stronger price environment.
Stonegate also points to multiple dated catalysts over the next 12 months. RNG fueling station deliveries to truck fleets are scheduled to begin in November. California’s year-round E15 implementation is slated for January 1, 2027. European Union export approvals for India biodiesel are expected in the fourth quarter. Additionally, thirteen cleanup and compression units are in hand for the next thirteen digesters. Higher 45Z and LCFS economics, together with refinancing and a potential minority India IPO, could drive meaningful margin expansion, cash-flow improvement and valuation upside. How financing terms and retained cash after investment are managed should determine how much of that improvement reaches shareholders.
The update was issued by Stonegate, Inc. and distributed by Reportable, Inc. For readers tracking renewable fuel credits and project timelines, the takeaway is that Aemetis has demonstrated earnings power from built assets, but the pace of cash conversion depends on construction completion, regulatory approvals, and financing decisions over the coming year.
