Holiday shoppers are projected to increase spending by 6 percent compared to last year, reaching up to $1,077 per household according to Simon-Kucher's 7th Annual Holiday Shopping Report. The comprehensive study reveals consumers are adopting stricter budgets while shifting focus toward quality and value over price across most categories, reflecting changing economic conditions and consumer priorities.
Shikha Jain, Partner and Head of Consumer and Retail for North America for Simon-Kucher, emphasized that consumers are not seeking uniform discount strategies this season. Retailers must balance promotions with differentiated discounts to meet consumer expectations while maintaining profitability. Most consumers anticipate discounts up to 40 percent, with 25 percent discounts remaining common across various categories. Spending patterns show category specificity, with over 50 percent of consumers spending more than $100 in high-value household appliances, home improvement, and electronics.
Purchasing behavior data indicates 66 percent of early holiday shoppers favor Black Friday and other sales events, beginning shopping as early as July 4th through Super Saturday. Social media serves as inspiration and source of influencer ideas for 64 percent of shoppers, while return rates remain relatively low with three out of four consumers returning 10 percent or less of their purchases. Max Walter, Director of Consumer and Retail for North America, noted that today's holiday shopper plans early, seeks social media inspiration, and expects seamless experiences that minimize returns.
Artificial intelligence has gained significant traction in holiday shopping, with 54 percent of consumers using AI for shopping support. Specifically, 23 percent utilize AI for deal tracking and 27 percent for price comparisons. However, adoption faces generational challenges as older consumers prefer brainstorming their own gift ideas and choose not to use AI technology. Walter observed that AI is increasingly leveraged to support holiday gift purchasing despite ongoing adoption and trust issues across different age groups.
External economic factors are influencing shopping behavior, with 44 percent of consumers expecting tariffs to have at least moderate impact on holiday shopping. Nineteen percent are opting out of certain purchases due to budget constraints and commercialization concerns. Shoppers employ an average of 2.4 payment methods, with 45 percent preferring debit cards as their primary payment option. Walter added that tariffs create financial hardship for both essential and discretionary goods, making value-driven initiatives crucial for business success.
The study, conducted between July 25-31, 2025, surveyed 1,513 US consumers anonymously to determine accurate holiday spending predictions. Analysis considered both absolute dollar amounts and percentage changes compared to previous years, excluding extreme values to focus on median consumer behavior. The findings build on trends established since 2019, showing continued consumer expectation of 25 percent discounts and Black Friday dominance, while social media platforms like Instagram and TikTok gain traction for browsing and discovery.
