The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) reported that Hong Kong exporters have adopted a more cautious stance in the first quarter of 2026 amid ongoing global trade and economic uncertainties. This follows a strong export performance in recent months. The HKTDC 1Q26 Export Confidence Index, released on March 31, 2026, showed moderate declines for two key indicators: the Current Performance Index stood at 46.5, and the Expectation Index returned a figure of 46.9. These readings reflect caution among survey respondents in light of the uncertain external environment.
Trade value expectations, however, remained relatively steady. The Trade Value Sub-Index stayed near the neutral threshold, with the Current reading at 50.9 and the Expectation reading at 49.1. This suggests that unit prices are expected to hold firm in the coming months. Meanwhile, both the Current and Expected Inventory Sub-Index rose above 60, indicating inventory rundown amid growing shipments in the early months of the year. The full details of the index are available in the HKTDC Export Confidence Index 1Q26 report.
HKTDC Director of Research, Bruce Pang, commented on the findings, stating, "The outlook for many of Hong Kong’s major markets has moderated somewhat, including the ASEAN bloc and the Chinese Mainland, largely on account of ongoing geopolitical developments. In the longer term, however, fundamental demand - especially for electronics and other consumer sectors - remains resilient. Hong Kong’s trade prospects should stay positive, yet remain cautious, pending the further easing of global geopolitical conflicts."
Despite the overall softening, several key sectors outperformed the overall Index. Most notably, the jewellery sector rallied impressively, supported by robust sales and sizeable new orders. The jewellery sector’s Current reading climbed to 57.1, while its Expectation reading rose to 56.0. The clothing sector also showed considerable improvement, with its Current Index rising to 52.1 and its Expectation Index increasing to 53.4. However, sentiment among electronics exporters weakened, with a Current reading of 44.9 and an Expectation reading of 45.6, signalling disruptions over the Chinese New Year period.
Cost pressures showed signs of stabilising. Although still in negative territory, the Cost Sub-Index improved significantly, with the Current reading rising 15.2 points to 38.1 and its Expectation reading up by 8.5 points to 41.3. This indicates potential sustained relief from cost pressures, despite recent surges in oil and energy prices triggered by developments in the Middle East. The impact of the recent conflict in the region was not factored into this survey as the fieldwork was carried out in January and February.
As part of the same survey, HKTDC Research also conducted a thematic assessment of Hong Kong exporters’ cross-border e-commerce business. The findings showed that 46% of respondents were already engaged in cross-border e-commerce, while a further 20% plan to enter the sector within the coming year. Among companies already engaged in cross-border e-commerce, the Chinese Mainland ranked as the leading e-commerce sales destination at 24%, followed by the EU27 & UK at 17% and Canada & the US at 15%, while the ASEAN bloc at 14% continued to emerge as a promising market with notable growth potential. More research insights can be found on the HKTDC Research website.
Kenneth Lee, HKTDC Section Head of Special Project & Business Advisory, added, "Market diversification remains a key strategy for Hong Kong traders to mitigate risks. At the same time, more companies are leveraging e-commerce channels to boost sales and enhance business sustainability amid an uncertain external environment." This shift towards digital sales channels highlights how exporters are adapting to global challenges, with e-commerce providing a buffer against geopolitical and economic volatility. The data underscores the importance of monitoring export sentiment as a barometer for regional economic health, affecting supply chains, employment, and international trade flows.
