While political headlines focus on tariffs, Los Angeles real estate expert Courtney Poulos identifies more fundamental economic forces shaping the housing market. The founder and CEO of ACME Real Estate challenges the popular industry narrative of a "2026 Great Housing Reset," arguing that interest rates and COVID-era pricing mismatches are the real story affecting affordability and inventory.
"Everyone's calling 2026 the great housing reset, but Trump's tariffs just added $17,500 to new home costs while his housing reforms remain undefined," Poulos notes. "Is this actually a reset, or just industry wishful thinking?" She emphasizes that in markets like Los Angeles, where new construction isn't dominant, tariff impacts have been negligible compared to broader economic factors.
The real constraint on market movement stems from the pricing dynamics established during the pandemic. "People who bought houses during COVID bought with cheap money, low interest rates, and pushed the values to a place where, when interest rates get higher now, it makes it less easy to sell that house," Poulos explains. This creates what she calls a "lock" where sellers with sub-3% mortgages from the COVID peak are unwilling to accept losses, while buyers cannot afford those same prices at current 6-7% interest rates.
Poulos believes solutions lie in creative financing options and realistic rate adjustments rather than waiting for dramatic market resets. She points to rate buy-downs, where developers prepay mortgage rates with builder credits, as one practical approach. Recently, she's observed rates in the fives on seven-year jumbo adjustable-rate mortgages, which she says could motivate hesitant buyers. "When you have interest rates in the fives, all those people who are sitting on the edges are going to start making moves," she predicts.
Contrary to doom-and-gloom predictions, Poulos reports cautious optimism in current market activity. "Buyers are coming to the table who were not in the market in the fall," she observes, noting that both buyers and sellers are showing increased flexibility. She cites a recent property that received 19 offers but went $300,000 over asking rather than the typical $400,000, indicating buyers have borrowing cost ceilings. "There has been an uptick in buyer enthusiasm this fall, even into November, which is typically the beginning of the quiet time," she says.
Poulos hosts "The Clean Close" podcast covering real estate industry news and trends, where she explores these market dynamics in greater detail. Her brokerage achieved $155 million in sales volume in 2024 with a team of 35 agents, giving her perspective on ground-level market movements.
"I don't see the truth in that sentiment," Poulos says of the 2026 reset narrative. "But I do feel optimism in our market." What she observes isn't a dramatic reset but a market adjusting as participants work with current realities rather than waiting for perfect conditions. "I'm rooting for us to be able to continue to experience the American dream because I believe it's the number one way to build wealth for people who are not already wealthy," she concludes, emphasizing the practical importance of understanding actual market drivers over industry narratives.
