A recent survey of 80,000 small business owners has unveiled a startling level of concern about the potential economic impact of a Kamala Harris presidency. The October 2024 Freedom Economy Index, a joint project by PublicSquare and RedBalloon, found that an overwhelming 87% of respondents would consider closing their businesses if Vice President Harris wins the upcoming election. This figure stands in sharp contrast to the mere 1.2% who would contemplate closure if former President Donald Trump is elected.
The survey results paint a picture of a small business community grappling with economic uncertainty and deeply divided expectations based on potential election outcomes. While 83% of respondents indicated plans to expand and invest in their businesses if Trump wins, only 1.1% expressed similar intentions under a Harris presidency. The disparity extends to hiring plans as well, with 81% considering new hires under Trump compared to just 0.5% under Harris.
These findings come against a backdrop of ongoing economic challenges for small businesses. Over half of the surveyed owners reported expectations of flat or declining sales for the upcoming Christmas season. The survey also revealed a current pause in hiring, with 76.6% of respondents neither hiring nor reducing staff, a significant increase from 53.6% a year ago. This hesitation in employment decisions appears to be directly linked to the uncertainty surrounding the election outcome.
The economic concerns extend beyond immediate business operations. A majority of respondents (57.4%) believe the U.S. is heading toward a recession, with an additional 32.8% expressing uncertainty about the economic direction. Inflation remains a significant worry, with 8 in 10 small business owners reporting substantial or somewhat increased supplier prices in the past month. The Federal Reserve's handling of inflation has also come under criticism, with 84% of respondents giving the Fed a poor or very poor grade.
The survey highlights a particular challenge for women-owned businesses, with 58% of women business owners reporting decreased revenues over the past 60 days, compared to 50% of male-owned businesses. Women owners also expressed greater likelihood of reducing staff and preparing for increased inflation if Harris wins the presidency.
These findings underscore the critical role that political outcomes can play in shaping the economic landscape for small businesses. The stark contrast in business owners' outlook based on election results suggests that the upcoming presidential election could have far-reaching implications for the small business sector, which is often considered the backbone of the American economy.
The potential for widespread business closures and a significant shift in hiring and investment strategies based on election outcomes raises important questions about economic stability and growth. It also highlights the interconnectedness of political decisions and economic realities for small business owners across the country.
As the election approaches, these survey results may prompt broader discussions about economic policies, their impact on small businesses, and the overall health of the U.S. economy. The findings also suggest that candidate platforms and proposed economic policies could play a crucial role in swaying business owner sentiment and, by extension, their operational decisions in the coming months.
While the survey presents a snapshot of current small business owner sentiment, it also serves as a barometer for potential economic trends and challenges that may lie ahead, depending on the outcome of the November election. As such, these findings may be of interest not only to policymakers and economists but also to consumers and workers who rely on the small business sector for goods, services, and employment opportunities.
