Stonegate Capital Partners has updated its coverage on Fold Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: FLD), analyzing the company's financial performance for the fiscal year 2025 and the fourth quarter. The update highlights a year of substantial growth in key metrics alongside persistent investment-driven losses, presenting a complex picture for the bitcoin rewards platform.
Fold concluded FY25 with revenue of $31.8 million, representing a 34% year-over-year increase. This growth was driven by a transaction volume of $960 million, which surged 46% compared to the previous year. The company also expanded its user base, ending the year with over 84,000 verified accounts, a 20% increase that included approximately 13,000 net new accounts. These figures indicate significant platform traction and scaling momentum.
Despite the top-line expansion, profitability remained under pressure due to continued strategic investments. The company reported an operating loss of $27.7 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $17.2 million for the full year. Stonegate's analysis suggests these losses are tied to ongoing platform development and market expansion efforts rather than fundamental business weaknesses.
The fourth quarter of 2025 presented a more nuanced performance. Revenue increased 8% year-over-year to $9.1 million. However, key operating metrics showed softening, with transaction volume declining 3% to $215 million and verified account growth moderating to roughly 2,000 net adds. Stonegate attributes this quarter's softer performance primarily to weaker bitcoin market conditions, characterizing it as more market-driven than indicative of structural issues within Fold's business model.
Looking forward, Stonegate identifies several factors that could influence Fold's trajectory. The company's expansion into new product lines—including its credit card, gift cards, and Fold for Business offerings—is expected to meaningfully enhance monetization, user engagement, and customer acquisition in FY26. Furthermore, Fold maintains a sizable bitcoin treasury and a flexible balance sheet, which Stonegate notes provides added liquidity to support execution as these new products scale.
The importance of this coverage update lies in its dissection of a high-growth fintech company navigating the volatile cryptocurrency market. For investors and industry observers, it underscores the challenge of balancing rapid user acquisition and platform scaling with the path to profitability. Fold's performance offers a case study in how companies leveraging cryptocurrency incentives are impacted by broader digital asset market cycles, while their long-term viability may hinge on diversifying revenue streams and prudently managing treasury assets. The company's ability to monetize its growing user base through new products like its credit card will be a critical indicator of its sustainable business model in the coming fiscal year.
