Death rates from valvular heart disease among U.S. adults ages 65 and older increased by nearly 5% from 2018 to 2023, rising from 104 to more than 109 deaths per 100,000 people, according to new preliminary research presented at the American Heart Association’s Scientific Sessions 2026. The meeting, held Nov. 6-9 in Chicago, is a premier global exchange of the latest scientific advancements in cardiovascular science.
The study, which analyzed death data from 1999 to 2023, found that the decades-long decline in heart valve disease mortality has stopped and is predicted to remain elevated through 2040. This reversal is particularly alarming given the substantial advances in treatment over the past decade and a half, said Sreekanth Vemulapalli, M.D., a volunteer member of the American Heart Association’s Target: Aortic Stenosis Scientific Advisory Group. “This disconnect between therapeutic innovation and population-level outcomes highlights the critical need for the American Heart Association’s quality improvement and educational initiatives to improve awareness, care delivery and patient outcomes,” he said.
Heart valve disease is an umbrella term for conditions that arise when any of the heart’s four valves—aortic, mitral, pulmonary or tricuspid—stop working properly. According to the American Heart Association’s 2026 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics, more than 80 million people worldwide live with heart valve disease, and the number is growing. In the U.S., heart valve disease contributes to more than 57,000 deaths each year.
The research, led by Hritvik Jain, M.D., a resident physician at Allegheny General Hospital in Pittsburgh, examined more than 1.2 million heart valve disease-related deaths among U.S. adults 65 and older from 1999 to 2023. The death rate declined from a high of 123.2 per 100,000 in 1999 to its lowest levels just before the pandemic, then increased to 109.2 per 100,000 in 2023. Men had higher rates than women (124.7 vs. 103.1 per 100,000), non-Hispanic white adults had the highest rates among racial and ethnic groups (122.4 per 100,000), and nonmetropolitan areas had higher rates than metropolitan areas (120.5 vs. 110.1 per 100,000). Adults ages 85 and older had more than 15 times the death rate of adults ages 65 to 69 in 1999.
“We also found that while death rates improved for newer generations in their late 60s, those gains did not continue into very old age. At age 85 and older, newer generations had higher death rates than earlier generations at the same age,” Jain said. Researchers used Joinpoint regression software to assess trends and ARIMA models to project mortality through 2040.
The findings highlight the need for earlier detection, timely treatment and equitable access to specialized valve care, particularly for the oldest adults and those in rural communities. In 2020, the American Heart Association launched Target: Aortic Stenosis™ to improve outcomes for people with aortic stenosis, and in 2025 it launched the Heart Valve Initiative, a national effort to ensure individuals with heart valve disease are identified earlier and treated sooner.
The study is limited by its reliance on death-certificate data, which may contain coding inaccuracies and cannot capture disease severity or treatment history. The COVID-19 pandemic may also have influenced trends in the final years. The findings are considered preliminary until published in a peer-reviewed journal. The abstract and the Online Program Planner are available for more details. For more news from the American Heart Association’s Scientific Sessions 2026, visit Scientific Sessions 2026.
