The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) forecasts Hong Kong's exports will grow between 8% and 9% in 2026, according to its annual Export Outlook report released today. This projection follows better-than-anticipated 2025 export performance and is driven primarily by robust demand for artificial intelligence-related electronics products.
The HKTDC 4Q25 Export Confidence Index reveals that 53.2% of exporters see rising demand for AI and new technology-related electronic consumer goods as the factor most likely to boost their 2026 business. This is particularly significant as the electronics sector accounts for more than 70% of Hong Kong's total export value. Detailed findings from the HKTDC Export Confidence Index 4Q25 are available at https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MjE4ODYyNTQwNw.
Irina Fan, Director of HKTDC Research, noted that while 2025 was a year of heightened uncertainty, 2026 should bring greater clarity on global trade. "With the Chinese Mainland and the US having come to a trade agreement in November, US tariffs are no longer among Hong Kong exporters' three biggest 2026 concerns," Fan said. However, she acknowledged that uncertainties remain as US imports from different countries face varying tariff levels, prompting business leaders worldwide to reorganize activities to optimize cost advantages.
Fan explained that Chinese Mainland exports to the US will be subject to a 20% reciprocal tariff rate until November 2026, on top of existing Trump administration tariffs. "This comparatively low additional tariff puts China-based suppliers, many with more mature and highly productive supply chains, on par with their Southeast Asia counterparts, while giving them a significant advantage over any country subject to a higher tariff rate," she said.
The HKTDC Export Confidence Index 4Q25 shows both the Current Performance Index (51.4) and the Expectation Index (51.9) remaining above the 50-point watershed level, indicating anticipated export growth. Kenneth Lee, Head of the HKTDC Research's Special Project and Business Advisory Section, said Asia remains the focus for expansion plans over the next two years, with 42.0% of respondents prioritizing the Chinese Mainland market, followed by the rest of Asia (30.3%) and the ASEAN bloc (18.9%).
Market expectation data shows the Chinese Mainland (57.2) and ASEAN bloc (57.0) with significant growth potential, while the US index declined 1.4 points to 38.0 due to ongoing trade environment uncertainties. Industry analysis reveals expansionary expectations for jewellery (54.8), electronics (52.4), timepieces (51.6), and equipment/materials (51.1).
Despite overall positive sentiment, the survey identifies potential challenges including rising labour and production costs (53.9%), growing logistics challenges (38.8%), and declining overseas orders due to economic slowdown (38.2%). The complete Hong Kong 2026 Export Outlook report can be accessed at https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MjE4ODc2Mzk2Nw.
