As September opens, markets are already showing signs of turbulence, with oil prices spiking, bond yields rising, and a notable backlash against Target's Halloween clown costume adding to the mix. In episode 816 of DH Unplugged, titled "Strikes, Spikes, Hikes," hosts Andrew Horowitz and John C. Dvorak dissect the forces shaping the final four months of the year, painting a picture of a market that is, in their words, "elephanty." The episode, published September 1, 2026, comes amid renewed U.S. bombing of Iran, which has sent crude oil soaring roughly 13% in two weeks to about $91.80. Diesel crack spreads are flashing inflation warnings, adding to concerns that higher energy costs could ripple through the economy.
The bond market is also on edge. Horowitz and Dvorak point to rising yields and a Federal Reserve caught between political pressure and a wobbly labor market. The hosts are particularly critical of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed nominee Kevin Warsh. "The administration is the boy who cried wolf right now," Horowitz says, adding that "Bessent has really gotten a little bit crazed trying to manipulate the markets." Dvorak ties these concerns to a broader erosion of trust, noting that currencies, equities, and even private valuations rest on confidence. "It's a series of very large trust factors," he argues, warning that tariff escalation echoing the Smoot-Hawley Act would signal that America no longer believes it can compete.
Corporate news offers a mixed bag. Dell provided blowout guidance, projecting fiscal 2027 EPS near $25.50 versus $18.99 prior, driven by a 40% data center share. Nvidia is reportedly pursuing a $12.9 billion acquisition of Hugging Face, though the Jensen Huang/Sam Altman fallout has cast a shadow. On the downside, Dick's Sporting Goods plunged roughly 30% as Foot Locker comps fell 3.6%. Target's Halloween clown costume backlash highlights the landmines of brand management in a socially sensitive era.
The episode also delves into government equity stakes in Intel, MP Materials, and Trilogy Metals, with a lawsuit now challenging the Intel arrangement. Horowitz, who discloses a personal short position in Intel, questions why Washington gets discounted shares that retail investors never see. Dvorak contrasts this with China's state-owned enterprise model and flags GLM 5.3 Flash from Chinese lab Z.ai, reportedly trained without a single Nvidia chip.
Listeners also hear about President Trump's Fox News threat that Iran will be "totally wiped out as a country" if it retaliates again, LEGO's 21% first-half revenue jump, and the baseball-card casino economy drawing scrutiny from Japanese regulators. Friday's August payrolls, ADP, JOLTS, and ISM data will cap the week's economic picture.
This episode underscores the importance of watching not just the numbers, but the underlying confidence that drives markets. With oil spikes, bond jitters, and corporate missteps, September is shaping up to be a volatile month, and the hosts' skeptical perspective offers a valuable lens for investors navigating these uncertain times.
