The U.S. eCommerce market continues to expand at a record pace, driven by the convergence of mobile technology, generative AI, and new retail infrastructure designed for speed and personalization. According to Mordor Intelligence, U.S. eCommerce is projected to grow from $1.25 trillion in 2025 to $2.08 trillion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 10.7 percent. This sustained expansion signals a fundamental shift in consumer behavior and retail dynamics that will impact businesses across all sectors.
Mobile commerce now drives the majority of online checkouts in the United States, while generative AI is improving conversion rates by aligning search intent with product discovery according to research from Mordor Intelligence. The integration of these technologies is creating a more intelligent and personalized shopping experience that benefits both consumers and brands. eCommerce sales climbed 7.5% year-over-year in 2024, reaching $1.1 trillion, and now represent 16.3% of all U.S. retail sales according to data from Digital Commerce 360 and the U.S. Census Bureau available at https://www.digitalcommerce360.com.
Mitch Gould, Founder and CEO of Nutritional Products International, emphasized that current market developments represent more than just numerical growth. What's happening now is a complete redefinition of how consumers discover, evaluate, and buy products. Mobile and AI are merging convenience with intelligence, and that's changing the entire distribution playbook. Generative AI is bridging the gap between awareness and action, helping consumers find what they actually want and helping brands tell their story in ways that resonate faster and more authentically.
The retail landscape continues to consolidate around dominant players, with Amazon maintaining approximately 40% of the U.S. eCommerce market, nearly triple the combined online sales of its next three competitors. Walmart is quickly closing the gap, reporting 23% year-over-year growth in online sales in 2024 and more than $120 billion in digital revenue. The growth of major platforms like Amazon, Walmart, and emerging players such as Temu opens opportunities for smaller, high-quality brands that can demonstrate readiness from compliance to category alignment before entering the market.
Success in the evolving eCommerce environment requires strategic orchestration across multiple channels. Brands can no longer treat online and physical retail as separate worlds. The winners will be those who synchronize data, fulfillment, and storytelling across every platform consumers use. This market transformation affects not only retail companies but also manufacturers, distributors, and service providers who must adapt to the new digital-first consumer landscape. The projected growth to $2 trillion by 2030 represents both significant economic opportunity and competitive challenges that will require strategic adaptation across the entire retail ecosystem.
