Market timing—waiting for the absolute bottom to purchase property—is a strategy that consistently fails buyers in Vail's real estate market, according to industry expert Mark Gordon from Christiania Realty. Decades of market cycles demonstrate that even sophisticated buyers struggle to time purchases correctly in this unique resort community.
Gordon entered real estate in 2008 during the worst market conditions since the Great Depression, gaining firsthand education in how Vail's market behaves. He observed buyers repeatedly making the same error: waiting for a bottom that was either impossible to identify or had already passed by the time they felt confident enough to act.
Between 2009 and 2011, Vail presented clear opportunities as prices corrected from pre-recession peaks, though not as dramatically as in other resort markets. "Buyers were very fickle," Gordon recalls. Many found properties they liked at historically sensible prices but hesitated, wanting the absolute bottom. This hesitation proved costly as prices rebounded before buyers felt confident to proceed.
"If all the buyers I worked with during the Great Recession had bought, they'd be very happy today," Gordon notes. Those who purchased in 2009 or 2010, even without catching the exact bottom, saw returns far exceeding any marginal savings they might have gained by waiting. Some eventually purchased years later at significantly higher prices.
Vail breaks traditional real estate assumptions. Supply is permanently constrained by national forest boundaries, preventing new development. Properties trade infrequently as owners tend to hold long-term. Demand comes from multiple sources including Denver, other U.S. markets, and international buyers, each influenced by different economic conditions.
As a result, Vail is typically slow to enter a correction and quick to recover. When one buyer group pulls back, another often fills the gap. The market tracks overall wealth more closely than interest rates, with a high percentage of cash buyers making stock market performance and wealth creation more significant than borrowing costs.
Today's market differs from 2008, with no widespread distress or forced selling. Instead, there is selective adjustment at lower price points while the luxury segment above $5 million continues to outperform. Approximately $2 billion in major developments are moving through entitlement, representing long-term investments by experienced developers betting on Vail's continued strength rather than short-term fluctuations.
Gordon describes Vail real estate as an appreciation play rather than a cash-flow investment. While other markets may offer stronger rental yields, Vail delivers long-term price growth along with lifestyle benefits. From 1980 to 2019, Vail properties averaged over 7% annual appreciation, supported by low property taxes, constrained supply, and diverse demand.
"Sometimes the best time to buy isn't the perfect moment," Gordon concludes. "It's when opportunity aligns with long-term fundamentals, and in Vail, that has proven true for decades." Prospective buyers can explore homes in Vail to understand current market conditions.
