BHP, the world's largest copper producer, expects the global copper market to enter a structural supply deficit from 2028, according to Chief Financial Officer Vandita Pant. Speaking at the FT Metals and Mining Summit in London, Pant said the shortfall would be equivalent to the output of eight to ten mines comparable in size to the Escondida mine in Chile, currently the world's biggest copper producer. The prediction implies a significant increase in annual supply will be needed by the mid-2030s to satisfy growing consumption.
Pant explained that declining production from existing deposits is already pressuring supply, making new mine development necessary to maintain output even before future demand growth is considered. Traditional sources of consumption such as population growth, industrial development, and urbanization are being joined by expanding digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, electricity network investment, and the shift to cleaner energy. Latest projections show annual global copper demand rising to more than 50 million metric tons by 2050, with data centers alone potentially consuming about 3 million metric tons per year over the same period.
Pant distinguished between the anticipated long-term supply gap and immediate market shortages, noting that temporary imbalances can develop when mining companies fail to meet production targets. Recent mine disruptions and operational difficulties have weighed on output, and copper concentrate availability has become increasingly constrained. The International Copper Study Group recently lowered its forecast for global mine production growth to 1.3% for the year, reflecting downward revisions for Indonesia, China, and Chile, though it expects growth to strengthen to over 3% in 2027.
BHP has been expanding its focus on copper, which accounted for over 50% of its underlying EBITDA for the first time in the 2025/26 financial year. The company expects its internally developed projects to increase attributable copper output to approximately 2 million metric tons by 2035, targeting average annual growth of around 5% in copper-equivalent production between the 2026/27 and 2034/35 financial years. Planned initiatives include expansions at Copper South Australia and Escondida, as well as the Vicuna joint venture and the Resolution project in the U.S.
If the structural shortage materializes, entities such as Numa Numa Resources Inc. could benefit from added demand and rising prices if their exploration and development efforts reach production level. The announcement underscores the challenges facing the copper industry as demand accelerates, with significant implications for miners, investors, and the global transition to cleaner energy. The story was distributed by MiningNewsWire, a communications platform focused on the global mining and resources sectors and part of the Dynamic Brand Portfolio at IBN.
